Just a reminder that with Wimbledon starting next Monday, you have until midnight on Sunday 22nd June to grab a place in my tennis trading academy. As explained in my previous post, I am officially closing the academy forever either by the start of Wimbledon or once the final 3 places have been taken. There is still one last spot remaining, so if you are interested, please read full details below and get in touch.

I will not be accepting any new members after this week. I will be posting again before the end of the tennis season though, so keep Centre Court Trading bookmarked. I have one final blog post about my own personal progress, which I'm looking forward to sharing with you. Till then, happy trading and enjoy this year's Wimbledon.




That's a grandiose name for my own amusement really! Basically, it's a trading guide plus mentoring/coaching service that I am offering as of today, for a small number of aspiring tennis traders.

Here's what I offer:

Insight into my style of trading
14 simple to execute strategies with advanced options, all of which I use myself
An email-based coaching service for 1 year
All my knowledge of the tennis markets
Help with the psychology of trading and tips to improve your mental game
In depth knowledge of all players inside the top 150, men and women
Analysis of your individual trades
Full access to my Centre Court Trading blog

Here's what I DO NOT offer:

A "golden egg laying goose" strategy
A guaranteed route to consistent profitability
Skype, face to face or telephone tutoring
Real-time, live trading analysis
Instant success for no work
Statistical databases

Why is it email only?

I don't have the time for Skype etc, as I need to be concentrated on my own trading. Please understand that I am not offering to be a full time mentor. If I did, I would be charging a lot more than I am! Most live trading mentors charge upwards of £50 per hour. You will need a hell of  a lot more than 60 minutes to become proficient at trading. Live mentoring can be great but it's very expensive in the long run and has its pitfalls.

I will provide you with my strategies plus lots of other trading information in my ebook to start you off with, so that you can trade immediately by yourself whenever it suits you. I will then provide an email service where I aim to answer any questions you have, to help you with my strategies and to analyse your trades. You will need to make notes and send them to me. I will aim to get back to you as soon as possible - most of the time I will be at my laptop trading anyway, so will hopefully get back to you during trading hours. I trade 5-7 days a week, every week, so you should never have to wait too long for a response.

Here's what I aim to do as a mentor/coach:

Set out realistic goals and targets
Get your mindset in the correct place to become a consistently profitable trader
Help you understand about value in the tennis markets
Help you learn how to read tennis matches
Analyse your trading notes
Give advice about becoming a full-time, professional trader

Why choose

I have over 10,000 hours experience over 4 seasons of full time tennis trading. My philosophy is not to hold your hand and do everything for you, so you become a clone of me. My strategies are there as a guide which you can tweak to suit your own style or use directly. With basic foundations set in place by me, you should then be able to trade well without the need for me to tell you what to do. This is not just another strategy ebook you are buying into but a coaching service for a full year which only a handful of other people will have access to. Unlike these other guides, you will not be learning the exact same thing as hundreds of other customers (which can lead to increased competition in the market and loss of value and edge) and will be learning a lot more from the author on a regular basis, about how to trade successfully.

For most of my members, what I've found they need is to understand the overall approach that successful, pro traders have, because they look at the markets very differently to your average trader. Instilling this approach is even more vital than learning specific strategies. Most importantly, you'll need to understand trading psychology and this is my speciality. It's what this blog has always focused on because it is the single most important but also the single hardest aspect of trading to master.


Why am I doing this?

I've said for a while now that the biggest obstacle to my success as a trader, is staying focused. It's something I've always struggled with and I go through periods where I just get fed up of the monotony of trading. Having something else to stimulate me and add variety to my day will aid my focus massively and that's the main reason I'm starting this service. The interaction with other people, the added focus and I hope enjoyment of helping others, could be invaluable to keeping my mind in the right place.

How to become a member of:
Email me (click on "The Sultan" in the top left of the blog to get my address) with any further questions and for the price. Please tell me a little about yourself; where you are as a trader right now and what you want to achieve. This will help me assess whether I can help you.

I didn't want to bombard readers with lots of quotes from members, as let's face it, these things are pretty easy to fake. But I thought I'd throw in two emails which I received (completely unprompted) just to give an idea of how I can help:

 "Regarding your ebook it's the best money I've ever invested in to the journey of learning to trade, it's given my confidence the perfect boost & optimism that I can push forward. I put your ebook in to practice through out the finals & it is a brilliant book I must say. My strategies have mainly been based on breaks of serve so once i read yours i couldn't wait to put yours in to practice, it made me realise that my whole existing setup from when to apply strategies combined with the entry & exit points along with my staking was rather messy & quite frankly not good enough & in turn causing me to end up frustrated then things turning in to out right bets etc. 

The strategies, entry/exit points & staking in your ebook are brilliant, naming each strategy is a great idea & I've found it so hopeful. I found the whole setup regarding the ebook made me very patient, calm & very disciplined while trading the finals. The reds were kept very low & the greens were good & some were close to being huge. It's the most id enjoyed trading for a long time & I'm really looking forward to the new season." 

Ashley (Academy Member)

"Hi Sultan,

I would like to describe my impressions from your academy. It will be hard for me on English (especially tenses) but I will try.

First of all I'm so proud because I'm member of your academy. Last two months I learned about trading much more than last two years. I learned a lot about discipline,way of thinking,way of looking in trade.
Also directly from your book and from your mails I learned about strategy in trade and how achieve them.Your mails is so strong and direct. In the beginning they almost blew my mind but I start to used them.

Of course I'm somehow at the start of journey, but for me is so great improve. You opened my eyes and I finally may see light in the end of trading tunnel. Now I'm enjoying looking tennis matches much, much more than before. I may look them even if I know that maybe not be involving in trade. And I may do that with relax mind. Before I didn't do this.

Before I saw "opportunity" for trade in every set a few times. Now I somehow recognized what is risk/reward and when is good for me. Now I don't go in trade without good reason.

Before I always involved in trade. And my account always was in little plus or in little minus, but I blow it without discipline when I had big losing trades.I couldn't go out when trades go in red. Now I don't do this. I don't go in trade if it's not describe in your book. Also I think I cannot blow my account again."

          Miroslav (Academy Member)

Please note: This service does not guarantee profit, nor does it mean I will do all the work for you. Every person is different and will learn at a different pace. You will need to put the hours in if you want to make my strategies work. It will not be a case of simply applying what I do and watching the money roll in. The strategies are a framework. To be successful, you will need to learn about the markets, value, the players, money management and psychology but my coaching will guide you in the right direction.

We are at the halfway stage of Wimbledon and so far, not only has it been my best ever week of trading, it has turned June into my best ever month of trading.

I hope none of you loyal readers of this blog stuck any money on Nadal because I did give you forewarning that he would not win Wimbledon and that he would be put under a lot of pressure by underdogs (if you read my Wimbledon preview on Betting Expert) - so you've only got yourself to blame if you did! I will admit that I did not expect Steve Darcis to be the man to knock out Nadal, as I never saw him as having a big enough game to out-hit Rafa. But if Darcis did, it just goes to show how much of a problem Nadal is going to have on any surface other than clay. His knees just cannot handle the pounding they will take on harder courts. I was amazed to see Nadal's price at 1.5 when he was TWO SETS behind and did not hesitate to lay it. It turned out to be my biggest ever win on a tennis match and has made up a large chunk of my Wimbledon profit.

I have to admit that I've had a fair amount of luck this Wimbledon so far. The now legendary day 3 (or Wipeout Wednesday as it's been nicknamed), really was a spectacular day for me. Seven withdrawals (4 before the match even began), and 7 huge upsets (Jankovic, Hewitt, Ivanovic, Sharapova, Federer, Tsonga, Wozniacki) made it the most exciting day's trading I've ever known, both from a gambling and a tennis-lover's perspective. Not only was I on the right side of the two biggest upsets, with Federer and Sharapova being ousted, I also managed to be on Gulbis when Tsonga retired and Cetkovska when Wozniacki took a tumble and injured herself. I like to see it as reward for daring to lay the favourite but I doubt I'll have a day like that for quite some time. Who is to blame for all the slips and upsets? No one! People  should just accept that it was an unusual week, almost certainly a statistical anomaly that we may never see again at Wimbledon. If the underdogs had slipped and exited the tournament, no one would be talking about the state of the grass, that's for sure.

Just before Wimbledon started, I was very surprised to find several bookies offering money back on outright winner bets if Andy Murray wins Wimbledon. I jumped at the offer to back Djokovic, which I felt at the time was as good as a free bet, as I expect either him or Murray to win. With Nadal, Tsonga and Federer all out early, I'm sure a few bookies are going to be sweating come the end of this week. Nothing has really changed though as far as I'm concerned. Murray and Djokovic were faves to make the final and both still are. Same with Serena Williams despite the loss of Azarenka and Sharapova. The great thing about all of this is that week 2 will see many more even contests with these big guns knocked out, than you would normally get in the second week of a slam and so better prices to trade with.

As you can see, I've not done too badly on the old soccerball either, for the second month in a row. The Confederations Cup turned out to be a fantastic spectacle and a great tournament to trade if you were looking for goals. The Italy 4 Japan 3 match was the best international I've seen in many a year and a big chunk of my profit came from this and also laying under 9.5 goals in the Spain v Tahiti game. Spain just hit their 10th and final goal with a minute or two to spare but it was a fairly low risk bet (around 1.5 to lay pre-match), so I was never sweating, though definitely very excited! I figured that after a dire Nigerian side still managed to put 6 past the admirable Tahitians (who played the game as it should be played), the Spaniards would have little trouble hitting double figures.

Aside from a little bit of bragging, I do have a reason for notifying you of these larger wins. Someone recently asked me how I coped with over-confidence, as I "never having losing days". I replied with a wry smile, that I often have losing days. The truth is, I actually have more losing trades per month than winning ones. I'm sure that will surprise a lot of people but I tallied up all my matches traded during June and it reads as thus:

WINS                   57
LOSSES                74
BREAK EVEN         22

Any wins or losses under £10, I counted as break-even, as they are a negligible amount that could easily have been a win or a loss. So that shows you that trading isn't about picking loads of winners. It's about maximising your wins and minimising your losses.

I just want to end by making sure any new readers understand that "Sultan Tennis: The Ultimate Guide to Tennis Trading" does not exist, as it was an April Fool's joke! I still get emails asking for a copy and I feel a bit bad having to turn them down! You never know though, this may well change one day...............watch this space!

Mandy Minella:

A few months back I announced that the academy was closing due to the fact that I could no longer coach anyone for a full year. That was because I am planning on doing a round the world trip in July 2015. As it's coming up to one year since this venture began, it means that I will soon have a number of spaces available for new members, as original members start to leave. So I've decided that, rather than just slowly winding down the academy, I will be going full steam ahead and now offering 3, 6 and 10 month membership. So if you were interested in the past but perhaps were put off by the cost, or if there were no spaces available, now is your chance to join up.

There is no difference in what you receive for each type of membership, other than the fact that you will have a longer or shorter period to learn  from me. In my experience, most traders need 6-12 months, especially if doing this part-time, to learn what is required to become a successful trader and put it into practice so they are disciplined on a consistent basis. Experiencing a full season of the tennis tour is also important, especially if you are new to tennis trading. But certainly, it is possible to improve to a decent standard within 3-6 months for some traders - it does vary a lot from person to person and it's impossible to say who is going to pick it up quickly and who needs more time.

So have a read below then get in touch for cost details and with any other questions you might have. The run in to the US Open begins next week as the tour moves over to North America, which means lots of evening matches to trade every day - perfect if you are based in Europe and can't trade during the afternoon due to work. Hope some of you will join me on the ladders!





That's a grandiose name for my own amusement really! Basically, it's mentoring/coaching service plus trading guide that I am offering for a small number of aspiring tennis traders.

Here's what I offer:

Insight into my style of trading
14 simple to execute strategies with advanced options, all of which I use myself
An email-based coaching service for 3, 6 or 10 months
All my knowledge of the tennis markets
Help with the psychology of trading and tips to improve your mental game
In depth knowledge of players inside the top 150, men and women
Analysis of your individual trades

Here's what I DO NOT offer:

A "golden egg laying goose" strategy
A guaranteed route to consistent profitability
Skype, face to face or telephone tutoring
Real-time, live trading analysis
Instant success for no work
Statistical databases

Why is it email only?

I don't have the time for Skype etc, as I need to be concentrated on my own trading. Please understand that I am not offering to be a full time mentor. If I did, I would be charging a lot more than I am! Most live trading mentors charge upwards of £50 per hour. You will need a hell of  a lot more than 60 minutes to become proficient at trading. Live mentoring can be great but it's very expensive in the long run and has its pitfalls.

I will provide you with my strategies plus lots of other trading information in my ebook to start you off with, so that you can trade immediately by yourself whenever it suits you. I will then provide an email service where I aim to answer any questions you have, to help you with my strategies and to analyse your trades. You will need to make notes and send them to me. I will aim to get back to you as soon as possible - most of the time I will be at my laptop trading anyway, so will hopefully get back to you during trading hours. I trade 5-7 days a week, every week, so you should never have to wait too long for a response.

Here's what I aim to do as a mentor/coach:

Set out realistic goals and targets
Get your mindset in the correct place to become a consistently profitable trader
Help you understand about value in the tennis markets
Help you learn how to read tennis matches
Analyse your trading notes
Give advice about becoming a full-time, professional trader

Why choose

I have over 10,000 hours experience over 5 seasons of full time tennis trading. My philosophy is not to hold your hand and do everything for you, so you become a clone of me. My strategies are there as a guide which you can tweak to suit your own style or use directly. With basic foundations set in place by me, you should then be able to trade well without the need for me to tell you what to do. This is not just another strategy ebook you are buying into but a coaching service for a full year which only a handful of other people will have access to. Unlike these other guides, you will not be learning the exact same thing as hundreds of other customers (which can lead to increased competition in the market and loss of value and edge) and will be learning a lot more from the author on a regular basis, about how to trade successfully.

For most of my members, what I've found they need is to understand the overall approach that successful, pro traders have, because they look at the markets very differently to your average trader. Instilling this approach is even more vital than learning specific strategies. Most importantly, you'll need to understand trading psychology and this is my speciality. It's what this blog has always focused on because it is the single most important but also the single hardest aspect of trading to master.


Why am I doing this?

The biggest obstacle to my success as a trader, is staying focused. It's something I've always struggled with and I go through periods where I miss chatting with other people. Having something else to stimulate me and add variety to my day will aid my focus massively and that's the main reason I'm starting this service. The interaction with other people, the added focus and enjoyment of helping others, is  invaluable to keeping my mind in the right place.

How to become a member of:
Email me (click on "The Sultan" in the top left of the blog to get my address) with any further questions and for the price. Please tell me a little about yourself; where you are as a trader right now and what you want to achieve. This will help me assess whether I can help you.

I didn't want to bombard readers with lots of quotes from members, as let's face it, these things are pretty easy to fake. But I thought I'd throw in two emails which I received (completely unprompted) just to give an idea of how I can help:

 "Regarding your ebook it's the best money I've ever invested in to the journey of learning to trade, it's given my confidence the perfect boost & optimism that I can push forward. I put your ebook in to practice through out the finals & it is a brilliant book I must say. My strategies have mainly been based on breaks of serve so once i read yours i couldn't wait to put yours in to practice, it made me realise that my whole existing setup from when to apply strategies combined with the entry & exit points along with my staking was rather messy & quite frankly not good enough & in turn causing me to end up frustrated then things turning in to out right bets etc. 

The strategies, entry/exit points & staking in your ebook are brilliant, naming each strategy is a great idea & I've found it so hopeful. I found the whole setup regarding the ebook made me very patient, calm & very disciplined while trading the finals. The reds were kept very low & the greens were good & some were close to being huge. It's the most id enjoyed trading for a long time & I'm really looking forward to the new season." 

Ashley (Academy Member)

"Hi Sultan,

I would like to describe my impressions from your academy. It will be hard for me on English (especially tenses) but I will try.

First of all I'm so proud because I'm member of your academy. Last two months I learned about trading much more than last two years. I learned a lot about discipline,way of thinking,way of looking in trade.
Also directly from your book and from your mails I learned about strategy in trade and how achieve them.Your mails is so strong and direct. In the beginning they almost blew my mind but I start to used them.

Of course I'm somehow at the start of journey, but for me is so great improve. You opened my eyes and I finally may see light in the end of trading tunnel. Now I'm enjoying looking tennis matches much, much more than before. I may look them even if I know that maybe not be involving in trade. And I may do that with relax mind. Before I didn't do this.

Before I saw "opportunity" for trade in every set a few times. Now I somehow recognized what is risk/reward and when is good for me. Now I don't go in trade without good reason.

Before I always involved in trade. And my account always was in little plus or in little minus, but I blow it without discipline when I had big losing trades.I couldn't go out when trades go in red. Now I don't do this. I don't go in trade if it's not describe in your book. Also I think I cannot blow my account again."

          Miroslav (Academy Member)

Please note: This service does not guarantee profit, nor does it mean I will do all the work for you. Every person is different and will learn at a different pace. You will need to put the hours in if you want to make my strategies work. It will not be a case of simply applying what I do and watching the money roll in. The strategies are a framework. To be successful, you will need to learn about the markets, value, the players, money management and psychology but my coaching will guide you in the right direction.

Five years. Five years have gone by since I first began tennis trading. It feels even longer than that. Sometimes I wonder what I would be doing if I wasn't a trader. Where would I be right now? What country could I be travelling? Would I have found myself a new career that I loved? Or gone back into something I hated? Do I regret the choices I've made? Am I TRULY happy?

There's a rain delay in Kitzbuhel. I have a stinking cold and I'm bored out of my mind, waiting for Andreas fucking Haider-Maurer and friends to play some dirt-ball. Truth is, I don't have to wait (plenty of lady-tennis on later) but I can barely move off the sofa and with a blister the size of a golf ball on my big toe, I'm not stepping outside for a good few days to come (and no, I'm not popping it, you aren't supposed to pop them!). So second-rate dirt-ball trading it is for me this afternoon. Maybe.

Certainly makes you think, boredom, incapacity and free time. I don't actually get that much of it these days, what with my trading and the academy. I'm also still in the early stages of planning my round the world trip, beginning in July 2015. I certainly would never have been able to do that in most other professions. The freedom to just get up and go away whenever I felt like it, for as long as I want. The fact that I can do this and that money is no longer an object to facilitate this, makes me realise that I shouldn't regret the choices I've made. But then, who knows what I could have missed out on in those early formative years of tennis trading, where I was more likely to shove my fist into a wall or spend all night tossing and turning with anxiety than be planning what Latin American nation I was going to spend a month sweating furiously in. But I try not to think about the past and to live in the present, which is pretty damn good right now.


There is still the future though. What does that have in store for me? Do I really want to keep doing this for much longer? Another year, for sure, but that will be 6 years of full time tennis trading. Do I want to be part of this industry anymore? It's not one I have a love or a passion for, yet it has made me more comfortable and freer than at any stage in my life since I was a child. The super premium charge will also loom on the horizon one day - like the apocalypse and the holy grail all rolled into one. I don't know why I use religious terms when I'm an atheist. It looms on the horizon like a beautiful setting sun, dipping into the ocean - one which will scold you for all eternity with a searing pain the moment you touch it. That's better.

So many questions to answer right now. Head hurts too much for all this. Still pissing it down in Austria. Maybe I'll watch some more The Walking Dead. Not sure if I like it or not but I'm on series 4 now so may as well continue. Jack Sock is a  funny name. If your name was Sock, why would you call your kid Jack? Doesn't work. Too many Ks. Those pain killers are kicking in. You know what? Things aren't so bad after all. Roll on Andreas Haider-Maurer!

A few times a week, mid-trading session, I like to go out for a stroll to get some fresh air, stretch my legs and focus my bleary eyes on something more than a practically invisible tennis ball 12 inches from my face. I usually go to my local golf course. I hate golf but the course has lovely panoramic views for miles around and is lush and well tended. It's usually pretty quiet during the week, so I don't get in the way of too many old duffers out ruining a good walk. You get the odd dog-walker and runner or a stray school-kid on their lunch break but other than that, it's very peaceful and I sometimes get the entire course to myself.

One of the few regulars I see, is an old man. He usually just appears out of nowhere from behind a bush. No, he's not a flasher but he does like exposed balls. He collects stray golf balls. He spends all day just wandering around the course, picking up white balls. I presume he sells them back to the course owners in exchange for a few pennies. I suppose it's not the worst job in the world. You spend all day outdoors in a picturesque environment. But I always feel a sense of anxiety whenever I see him - because I'm scared that I'll end up the same as him. I don't want to be that guy - scratching around in the undergrowth in order to make a few pennies. Maybe he doesn't need the money (although from the scruffy look of him and always miserable face, I'm guessing he probably does) but then I'd ask the question "why isn't he spending his retirement time with family or friends?". I don't know why but it just scares me to think about how he has ended up in this predicament.

I first spotted him around the time I began tennis trading and the thought that I might one day end up like him if I didn't succeed, steadily grew in line with my own debt. In some respects, the ball collecting man drove me on to do well when I was feeling like jacking it all in. The fear of having to sink to collecting golf balls for a living, made me buck my ideas up and strive harder to succeed. Not that I wasn't already but it was extra spur.

I still get that nauseating feeling even now when I spot him, even though my debt worries are long gone and I will be comfortable for years to come - barring a disaster. But what happens if there is a disaster? I've lived on the edge for a few years now and have come through it but things can change. I think more and more about what I'm going to do with the money I've accumulated and how I'm going to invest it in future. At the moment, I don't need to do anything other than keep doing what I'm doing. I don't require vast sums of liquidity to make what I need to live off and to save substantial amounts but I'm thinking about what my next move could be. A new challenge perhaps? A new direction?


The natural move is to diversify into other sports but none of them interest me; basketball, cricket, horses and of course, golf. No thanks. Only football would be able to hold my interest and long term readers will know exactly how bad my footy trading was! I don't think I could face going back into that after all the time I wasted on it previously. So the next move would be into financials. Again, no thank you sir! I'd rather bathe my eyeballs in vinegar than spend my days in the cold, stuffy, suit 'n' tie world of business.

So where to next? I'm still figuring that one out. But I guess I'm reaching an age where I'm starting to think about saving for retirement. It's still a long way off but you have to act a bit more sensibly when you are self employed! Maybe my trip abroad next year will bring some enlightenment on what to do. Spending so much time wandering around temples tends to make you think deeply and introspectively, even if you do believe religion is a complete waste of time. I'm doing plenty of that right now as you can tell, without the aid of a temple. Just a man with balls.

They say that talking to oneself is the first sign of madness. If that's the case, I'm ready for the men in white coats and have been for quite a while. 5 years of solitary trading has turned me into a jabbering idiot - at least, that is how I'd appear if anyone spied through my keyhole. Most of the conversation (and we are talking full blown conversations, often with me taking the role of two people with opposing views) would be deathly dull stuff about whether I should lay some 16 year old Croatian prodigy who should still be in school (that really doesn't sound right, does it) rather than hitting the cover off a yellow ball in 100 degree heat in some Asian backwater. But increasingly, it is becoming more conversations about life in general.

Just the fact I'm having these conversations out loud with myself is enough to concern me (especially when I start to vary up the accents) but perhaps it's a sign I am in need of more human contact? I've always been the kind of person who is fine working alone and I enjoy my own company (I really am delightful companionship) but for the first time in a long time, I have started to crave some real-life interaction. I guess I was so deep within the trading bubble for so long, whilst I was learning and desperate to succeed, that I didn't even have time to miss other people. I was too intensely busy and highly motivated to have conversations about last night's episode of Breaking Bad, anyway. But now I have lost much of that intensity, due to the simple fact I'm doing quite well now. I'm almost on cruise-control in a sense. Auto-pilot has been activated and that has taken much of the hard focus out of my days.

Twitter would be the answer to this but I had to ban myself from using it so much because I just became too addicted. Whilst I'd love nothing more than  to shoot the breeze about tennis with extremely knowledgeable tennis folk such as @hotdog6969 @theoverrule @tennisratings @darkdyson @sportdw @seancalvert1 @duckdablackswan @forcederrors (and many others I've forgotten) I just find myself getting so engrossed that my concentration wanes and I make silly mistakes on the ladders. As I have no one to chat to around the water cooler at work, this has freed up areas of my mind to go wandering absently through the great wonders of life. This can be a dangerous thing, not only because it's very easy to lose focus whilst daydreaming and it only takes a split second for that to ruin a trade but also because it means you ponder over things and start to build up worries.



What seems like another life-time ago, I was a teacher. This is about as sociable a job as you can get. No two days are the same and I was guaranteed varied conversations with many people from all kinds of backgrounds. It's the complete opposite of trading, where I literally never chat to anyone face to face and the the days all meld into one. I know other tennis traders can and do chat on Twitter or in chatrooms whilst they trade, so maybe it's only me who struggles with this aspect. I've never found a way around this and so now, I just talk to myself. Although ironically, this is an excellent technique for keeping focus and being thorough with your analysis as you trade in-play. So it's not all bad!

But I think I am now reaching the stage where perhaps solo trading is actually starting to turn me a tad insane. I have started to wonder what it would be like to have a trading partner; someone to discuss trades with in private and perhaps work together as a team. Potentially it could make a whole world of difference, providing a bit of companionship, sharing the work-load and having a second opinion on tap. Could that even work? Would that person need to physically be in the same room for it to be of any use? Would that mean I couldn't trade in my pants whilst scratching my balls, blasting house music and eating whole tubs of Ben and Jerry's anymore? Probably. Ah well.

Today, my internet went down, taking my trading software and Betfair with it. I immediately logged off, closed the laptop and headed out for a stroll and to collect that 2 for 1 offer on Ben and Jerry's Half Baked (that's the cookie dough and chocolate fudge brownie combo that I've become scarily addicted to).

Doesn't sound like much, does it. But going back less than a couple of years, I would have reacted far differently. Neck muscles would have pulled,  furniture dented, doors smashed, cakes thrown at walls (once), obscenities rained down and screams pierced the air. I couldn't handle anything that went against me and the valuable time required to get back those accumulated losses. It got me thinking about what else has changed about me since I began trading (and blogging). I'm definitely stronger. I care less about what others think. My self belief is higher. I probably have a harder exterior. I worry less (though it won't seem like that from my recent posts!). I look at the challenges and obstacles of life in a much calmer and resilient manner. Overall, I'm a more relaxed, confident individual.

I don't trade as much as I did in those early years. It was a 7 day a week obsession for me but I now try not to trade on weekends - though I do occasionally get suckered into a big final or a"sure thing" on a Sunday! I take more days off during the week too. I have two holidays planned for this year and one of them is during the tennis season - this is unheard of for me! I'm still acutely aware that I should make hay whilst the sun shines and so still treat it as an +8 hour a day job but I'm just a lot more relaxed about my time off now. It used to play on my mind and I'd worry about whether I was doing the right thing by socialising instead of trading but these days, it doesn't register. If I feel like going out, I go out. I could just as easily stay in and end up losing money, which only makes the whole situation even worse - a double whammy of cash down the plughole and a missed date with a fully-loaded chick (and yes, I have actually cancelled dates just to stay in and trade before!).

I'd say this year has been the first when I've been truly content with my trading life and the work-life balance. There's no coincidence that I also am more profitable and financially stable for the first time. Once those worries about how much you have to survive on for the foreseeable future dissipate, it makes it very easy to relax and just go with the flow. Then all of a sudden, lesser worries (such as which ISA should I put my savings into?,  am I talking to myself too much?, am I eating too much Ben and Jerry's? and what the hell is an ISA anyway?) start taking the place of the older, serious ones (like can I pay the rent this month?, have I dislocated my shoulder from punching the door too hard? and is this really worth me staying up till 5am after another 16 hour day hunched over a laptop sweating on some 17 year old Serbian girl as she pumps yet another forehand into the net costing me a month's worth of groceries in the process?). I believe the former worries are known as "First world problems" (with a hashtag stuck to the front of course). If those are the only worries you've got, then life must be pretty sweet. But I'm just not sure if I'm being totally fulfilled by the actual work anymore.



The challenge of cracking trading has gone and I never really figured how that would affect me. I guess you don't know until it happens but I didn't really think it would be an issue if the money was rolling in. I thought I wouldn't care as long as I was comfortable financially and able to facilitate an active social life. But now, I'm wondering if I need more than that.  My outlook is starting to change. Don't get me wrong, trading for a living is a wonderful opportunity and has changed my life in ways I never thought were possible. I thank my lucky stars every day that I can do what I do but I also know that there's more to life than money. I have realised that I'm not a money-driven person and I think you really need to be in order to be a pro trader because you aren't really getting any satisfaction from helping others, contributing to society or creating anything interesting. Whilst I was learning how to trade, all of this didn't bother me but now, it really is causing me to re-evaluate my work.

I know I have a lot to offer the world in some capacity but at the same time, I'd be stupid to throw away the incredible income stream I have fought so hard to generate. It's a real conundrum................just like wondering whether I should eat a full tub of Ben and Jerry's in one day (I should).

Last year, I  had my first 4 figure win on a single match. I was ecstatic at the time. It felt as though I'd reached  an important milestone and that I was now on the edge of turning my trading into something major. As time continued onwards and into 2014, that feeling of ecstasy dissolved. After a few dozen 4 figure wins, although still satisfying and enough to raise a smile, it had become an expected result. As the months rolled on, the joy almost entirely seeped out of those wins and my goals had shifted - I wanted to achieve even bigger wins. I suppose that is only natural, although it's weird because I can still remember how my heart used to pound furiously 5 years ago when I was close to greening up for less than £2 (I started on the Betfair minimum stake)!

But then the guilt appeared. This is a very unusual sensation to feel about your work and one I never expected. I started to think about what I was doing and whether I really deserved to be making such sums of money. If I can make 4 figure sums, often in as little as just a few minutes, for basically gambling, for doing something that doesn't contribute to society in any way whatsoever, is that OK? I'm sure this is not something that crosses every trader's mind but it does for me and I find it hard to just ignore.

Of course, it would be unbalanced to say it was just me making big wins every trade. I have plenty of losses too. It's not as though I'm Wayne Rooney, earning literally thousands of pounds per hour even when he's sitting on his arse by some 5 star hotel's private swimming pool having a sneaky fag and a sangria in the off-season. Footballers and other highly paid sports stars do get it in the neck from people for earning such bloated wages, out of proportion most would agree, with their actual contribution to society. I think most of us are in agreement that those kind of wages are obscene but hardly immoral. You can also argue that if it weren't for us, the paying public and football consumer, he wouldn't be able to command those fees anyway. If Rooney scores a goal for Manchester United but there is no one there to see it, does it really mean anything?


People also tend to forget the hard work that Rooney has put in to get where he is. Just as I sometimes forget just how much graft I put in for years to get to where I am. I admit I did things the hard way and I didn't need to make it such a painful ride but nonetheless, very few successful traders reach the top without some sort of sacrifice. So why do I still feel guilty? Maybe it's because at least Rooney brings some joy to fans lives (not England fans but you get what I;m saying) and the entertainment he and his peers provide could be considered a valuable contribution to society, if we are scraping the bottom of the barrel. What does my trading do for anyone other than me? True, I've probably provided a good few mortgage downpayments, designer suits, snazzy watches or cocaine and whore evenings (depending on  how you want to look at it - I prefer the latter) for Betfair directors but other than that? Not a jot. Maybe that is what pains me a little. Or maybe I just feel bad because I think about what someone doing something meaningful, like a nurse (which is usually the first profession brought up in these kind of discussions) earns in the same amount of time it takes me to green up my totally self-centred tennis trade completed in less than the time it takes to change a bed-pan.

It just doesn't feel right sometimes. Maybe if Rooney could actually see the money he earns on a screen as it comes in like in the  link above, he would also feel guilty. Hell, perhaps he DOES feel guilty! Having that big all-green figure staring at you is something no other profession I can think of actually has. You can see your wages as you get them and so it magnifies the emotions involved. Rooney probably never even looks at his bank account. I certainly do and I feel good about it these days. I guess that's all that really matters. Isn't it?

I'm going to reveal something now that might surprise many of you. Back at the beginning of the year, I wrote about how I had traded for a betting syndicate in October 2012 and how I had a few offers from potential investors to do something along similar lines. There was much debate amongst the blogging world at the time, about the merits of what I was doing and not long after, there was even more talk about the negative side of entrusting someone else with your money, as the 'Betfair King' (aka Elliot Short), was found to be a fraudster. Very few people had a good thing to say about the pluses of such a deal but then, very few people will have experienced the pros of a successful mutual trading agreement. But I have. Twice.

Because of all the negativity, I decided to stay tight-lipped and not write about this subject any further but I can now reveal that the main reason that I am experiencing such great profit over the past few months, is because one person (who will remain un-named) decided to take a chance on me.  It wasn't a particularly large sum of money (in fact, it was the smallest amount that I'd initially discussed of all the offers I've had) but I always insisted that I didn't need a large amount; just something to kick-start me and enable me to reach a stage where I can compound on my own. I have now finally reached that stage. So my investor has made back all his money and several times that, in just a few short months. Had he not taken the plunge and trusted me, I would not be in the position that I'm now in and I am extremely grateful for that. So much so, that although I no longer require his investment, I want to reward him for giving me an opportunity where most others wouldn't (all the other potential investors I spoke to elected not to get involved and in fact, a couple of them disappeared without a word, mid-discussion, which I find extremely rude).

So I'll be continuing our partnership for a while longer yet and hopefully making both of us more money.  It's not gonna be for everyone but for every Elliot Short disaster (and let's face it, that was a one-off in terms of the sheer scale and incredulity), I'm sure there are plenty of smooth, success stories - you just don't get to hear about them. Which is why I wanted to write about it here on Centre Court Trading but also to put in writing my sincere thanks to my investor. It just goes to show you that there are good, trustworthy people out there and that taking calculated, well-researched risks can reward the brave.

July has broken my monthly profit record again, which shows that you don't need a Grand Slam to make money trading tennis (Wimbledon ended on July 6th but I made relatively little profit on those last few days). There were also no Masters 1000 or WTA Premier events all month, which proves what I've said for a long time: quality of sport has little or no effect on trading opportunities (as long as you know your stuff). The only difference is in the liquidity available, which has not been an issue for me personally.

We are now into the final third of the tennis season and that starts with the run up to the US Open. With matches taking place in the evening, European time, liquidity will be strong, as many part-time / casual traders are now able to give tennis a shot after their working day is over. I personally dislike this period as it plays havoc with my social life but it will at least mean I can experiment with some larger stakes and see if I can take my profit up to another level. I will also be keeping a close eye on the football when it starts. After a couple of successful months trading soccer recently, I want to see if I can continue it this season. Or maybe I'm just becoming more and more greedy the more money I make! It's not a quality I admire but in this game I've come to realise that there is no point holding back and being content when you never know what's around the corner. The words "hay", "sun" and "shine" have never been more pertinent.

Petra Cetkovska:

The final tennis Grand Slam event of the year gets underway next Monday. Here are my thoughts on Betting Expert:

The Sultan's US Open 2013 Preview

Caroline Wozniacki:

The two traders who I have most looked up to since I began learning how to trade, are Mark Iverson and Matt "Jolly Green Giant" Punt.com (I also have a great deal of respect for Tradeshark but his journey is not as well documented). Mark is a genuinely nice bloke who seems very down to earth and the few personal dealings I've had with him have left me in no doubt about that. His online story is the most compelling because it's one of the few that cover the entire process of going from that initial Betfair deposit to making a quarter of a million. Matt is the guy who pretty much all of us tennis traders aspire to be. He built up from scratch and is still going strong a decade later, both as a trader and retailer of quality tinned sweetcorn. He shares much of what he does online and it's a constant reminder of what is there to be achieved if you really want it. He's also proved a generous guy in the conversations I've had with him.

My goal was initially to just make as much money per month as I did in my old job (and I really didn't make much either as a writer or before that as a teacher). I felt that I didn't want to get greedy and would be more than happy to just make enough to live off per month. I didn't even really think it was possible for a normal guy like myself, to make huge sums from trading. But when I saw what these two were doing, I gradually began to change my thinking and started to believe that I could aim for that too. There came a point last year, when things started to really take off for me, that I was convinced that I could be up there alongside these most revered of traders.

I personally don't like to talk about exactly how much I'm making and I don't tell anyone, not even my friends. I was brought up to think it is distasteful to do so and I think you'll find the same with many British people. You'll notice Mark never puts monetary figures on his graphs and I stopped showing my P&L a while back. But it's interesting to see exactly what the potential is within the markets, to know what is possible to strive for. Both Mark and Matt have liabilities in the 5 figure range, which is pretty scary territory from where I'm sitting! I'm not there yet and I don't actually need to be. So it becomes a case of, do I want to be? I'm not sure I want the added stress or the added guilt (as I mention in a recent post). I can't truly consider myself in their league unless I do push on again to that level but then, do I really want to be considered in their league? Would I get satisfaction from that? I don't spend much time on Twitter, unlike the aforementioned, who clearly both love to chat away during their trading hours. I do too but personally find it too distracting and detrimental to my trading and eyesight! But I'd probably need to do more Twitter-based activity in order to gain that same status. I thought about tweeting this little beauty from earlier this week but I couldn't quite bring myself to. Felt too much like showing-off. Besides, it's not quite £29,000! But what the hell, it's my biggest ever win so why not!



Someone recently tweeted me joking that I needed to go through the cocaine and strippers phase. It made me laugh but I think there is a grain of truth in what he said (and I'm sure he was only half joking!). I deciphered the meaning behind the tweet as being that instead of all the worrying and introspection I've been going through of late, I should just forget it by enjoying my new found monetary gains and splashing out in opulent fashion on a few vices. Maybe he's right. Maybe I need to just spend, spend, spend for a short while, get it out my system instead of over-thinking and remaining a tight-wad. Not on cocaine and strippers though. Cocaine isn't for me and never seen the point in giving away money just to be teased. Ben and Jerry's and strippers is more up my alley, though don't for one minute think I would waste the delicious ice-cream by letting it melt onto anyone's body. A friend of mine wants us to go to Las Vegas - the perfect place to splurge on pointless crap. Weird thing about that is, he's a failed gambler who would spend all night there throwing his dollars at the house and I'm a successful gambler who wouldn't even stick a quarter in a one-armed bandit!

No, I'm just not the kind of guy who is going to gleefully waste hard-earned cash on trivial shit. I've never been into material possessions and money just doesn't get me wet, so to speak. I'd much rather stay in hostels and cheap backpacker hotels, making new friends and mixing with locals, than stay in some plush 5 star palace. I love driving but I genuinely don't care about cars and know next to nothing about make and models, so shiny motor-vehicles with massive horse-power are wasted on me. I prefer a cosy flat to a big house. I do love clubbing but I go for the music, to dance and for a friendly atmosphere, not expensive bottles of champagne at exclusive table service bars where you hang out just to be seen.

I just want security and freedom, two things I never had in either of my previous jobs, which is what drove me to look for alternatives such as trading. That's what drives me to make money. Now that I have that (for the time-being at least), I'm not sure I have the ambition to move into Matt and Mark territory. They both have families to look after, which is obviously a  huge motivational factor. I don't. I'm sure having that extra responsibility brings a greater focus and intensity to your trading and these guys have fingers in pies other than their own individual trading. I don't. So I need much more to keep me interested. Exactly what that is, I'm not sure yet.

I hate statistical analysis. It was one of the modules of my university course that I reluctantly had to do and it was by far my most hated one. I mostly recall trying to stay awake in lectures and taking the piss out of my tutor with a friend because he was so bloody boring - probably as you would expect from someone who was that into statistical analysis (that's a joke there, don't start crying stat fans!). Who knew it would end up the most useful part of my entire degree? So I had a good basic understanding of things like probability, variance, outliers and how to collate and interpret information well before I became a trader. It's something most traders don't pay enough attention to. It's something I didn't pay enough attention to, for too long.

Despite the knowledge I have, it is only fairly recently that I've actually bothered to store all my P&L data in graphs and charts. There's absolutely no way I would ever have bothered to do so using mathematical software but last year I discovered a fantastic website called "MyBetLog.com". This superb piece of kit is a must for all lazy gits such as myself, who can't (or can't be bothered to) use Excel. With just a few simple clicks, you can download your Betfair P&L onto your PC and then onto MyBetLog, where it is instantly turned into a variety of pie-charts, graphs and stats such as your average loss, average win and strike rate.

I've picked out the two most important/interesting graphs for you, which are my daily P&L and overall P&L (running from the start of the tennis season to July). As you can see, it's been a decent year for me so far.



December was my only losing month, though hardly counts as it was just 4 days of trading. The trend has been upwards ever since then, with April my best month and June my worst. If the trend continues, I could hit the super premium charge in roughly one year - a scary thought! As you can see, I have my fair share of losing days and my strike rate obviously shows that I'm very used to losing trades but it just goes to show that trading isn't about picking winners.



One thing I love about graphs is that they make everything seem a bit more real. When you are just looking at numbers, you don't quite get that same sense of exactly how well or how badly you are doing. Looking at these graphs (which I had updated a couple of weeks ago after 3 months of not bothering) they do put things a little into perspective for me. I think I'd taken for granted just how well I was doing and forgot to give myself a congratulatory pat on the back every so often. I've started to focus too much on the negative side of trading and not enough on the positive. Admittedly, the positive is mostly profit-related but nonetheless it's a very big positive that many people would kill for and I should remember that. But the negatives that I have written about in recent weeks are still very real. This is what I am weighing up at the moment. What's more important to me - the money and freedom or being more deeply fulfilled with a sense of purpose, challenge, enjoyment and community?

As I've said before, I feel I have a lot to offer the world in some capacity. I was thinking of becoming one of them political mediator whatsits. You know, the guys what sort out big arguments just by using their mouths. I reckon I'd be dead good at that, it's just talking sense really, innit? Take that Middle East war for example. I could get in there and sort that mess out no problem. You've got them Palestinians. Now, I know they're all pissed off cos their leader, Tony Pulis, is dead but it's really no need to start kicking off and firing rockets and shit. And the Isaralites, right, they're dropping bombs on UEFA refugee training camps and stuff - BANG out of order. I'd just go in there, to Africa or whatever, sit them down with a few pints and some pork scratchings and say "Lads, you know god doesn't even exist, right? Have you not heard of the The Big Bang Theory? No, I don't mean that pile-o-shite American sitcom that daft lasses find funny. Google it. So all this kerfuffle is a waste of time, dudes!". Out come the Ipads, job's a good 'un. I'm telling you, super premium charge in one year, Nobel Peace Prize in two.

Much introspection has littered my blog posts recently.  I genuinely had no intention of ever lifting my finger to keyboard (doesn't have any of the romanticism of "pen to paper" does it?) again, back at the start of the year. I haven't missed blogging or the online trading community one little bit. It's been a restful hiatus for me and my trading has blossomed during that time but as long term readers will know, one of my passions is writing and it's what I did for a living before I was a trader. I miss it. For those less creative or who don't quite understand, sometimes you get these bursts of energy and inspiration which have to be released and this blog is my best outlet for that (140 characters on Twitter doesn't really cut it!). I've been feeling that need more and more this summer and it has finally spilled over, uncontainable no more!

Anyway, I digress. Today, I actually have come to a major decision. It's been building for a while now and you perhaps won't be surprised if you've read any of my recent blog posts but I've decided that I no longer want to be a professional tennis trader. As you'll know, I had planned a round the world trip next year which was to take place from July - December. Six months of backpacking and seeing parts of the world I'd never been to before. Afterwards, it was my intention to just pick up trading again when the tennis season began in January and carry on my usual work on the ladders. But I don't think I can.

I remember what it was like when I last travelled, which was not long before I started to learn to trade. I was gone for almost a whole year that time and settling back into normal life was extremely difficult. I'd already made up my mind that I didn't want to go back to my 9-5 career and needed a change of direction so that I could be my own boss and have greater freedom - namely so I could travel again! Little did I know at the time, that the gambling industry (something I knew next to nothing about and had never partaken in) would provide the job that would facilitate this freedom. But that's exactly what it is to me, a job. It's not a career. A damn good job if you can get it and one I really appreciate because of how hard I worked to get it. But a job nonetheless. And I need a career - one that I will truly enjoy, feel like I'm contributing to society in some way and with more human contact. I don't know what that career will be (obviously not totally ruling out political mediator just yet) but I hope to stumble across that when I'm in some foreign country next year, perhaps whilst strolling barefoot along a tropical beach!

I just feel as though I'm wasting my talents and am not being challenged mentally. The Academy has been a great help in aiding my focus and making my days more purposeful and varied but at the end of the day, I'm still sat alone at a PC talking to myself. It's not enough.


I'm not quitting just yet. I want to hit that Super Premium Charge and my projections mean I might just reach that around the middle of 2015. The thought of giving away 50% of my profit to Betunfair turns my stomach and as much as I'd still be making a substantial sum each month, I feel as though I'd rather use my time to do something more worthwhile with my life. Returning to England with the travel-blues and then forcing myself to sit down and stare at a computer for 8 hours a day knowing that 4 of those hours are basically me lining some Betfair fat cat's pockets with cocaine and whore dollars, is chundersome (I made that word up - this is what happens when writers don't write for so long. Feel free to use it).

It feels good to have made this decision. It hasn't been that long that I've been making money on Betfair but that shows you just how quickly things can spiral when you compound your winnings, are good at saving and remain patient. Last year was a very profitable year but nothing greatly out of the ordinary. This year has exploded though and next year, I aim to hit heights that I'd only dreamed of. It might not happen but even if it doesn't, I'll be satisfied with my lot and excited about the new pathway I'm about to take in life.

I've been trading tennis since February 2010 and have been full time for the majority of that period. That's well over 10,000 hours on the ladders, one year of coaching and working with other traders and four years of blogging. I've had an amazing roller-coaster of a journey and I'm beginning to feel as though I'm ready for the final chapter and a change of scenery. One final year to go then and I feel rejuvenated just knowing that. It has given me a new injection of energy and a real challenge to aim for that super premium charge. As I won't be trading after July 2015, I am no longer able to take on traders for a full year in the Academy. This means there will be new prices and options available. Email me using the new contact form on the blog if you would like to discuss them. This will be my final year of running the Academy, so last chance to jump on board if you'd like to learn how to trade tennis! Full details can be found by clicking here.

It dawned on me today that next week's US Open will probably be the last one I ever trade! As I will be in some distressingly hot country, dressed in sandals and covered in mosquito bites this time next year,  the coming fortnight will be my first farewell to a Grand Slam event that I've worked on for the previous 4 years. I can't say I'm too excited about it though. One mistake many new traders make is putting greater emphasis on the Slams. They gear themselves up mentally more than with standard tournaments and that means putting greater pressure on themselves to make money purely because of the status of the event. This a major error! I learnt a while back that just because it's a Slam, doesn't suddenly make it easier to trade. I see this all the time in my Academy: people trading multiple games at once so they don't miss out on all the opportunities, over-staking, getting over-excited and sucked into the drama and action. You must treat it the same as any other week and that means detaching yourself emotionally.

 In a recent post I said that the challenge has gone from trading and I'm now on autopilot. I wanted to make sure there is no confusion about that because it doesn't mean that what I'm doing is easy. I still have many decisions to make every day, often split-second decisions and in order to do that, you have to be sharp and well prepared. But I've been through the process of making these same decisions hundreds of thousands of times already, so nothing new ever crops up which is going to stump me. As long as I put in the time to research thoroughly (which really doesn't take long at all these days) and make sure I don't become rusty, there's nothing particularly difficult that I need to do. Yes, the markets could change but my ability to find value won't as long as I keep at it. So yes, it's much easier to trade now than it was, say, 2 years ago or even one year ago. The challenges now are different but they aren't ones which mean the difference between a winning month and a losing one. More the difference between a missed opportunity and a taken one.

In essence what I'm saying is that trading has become easier but it's still not easy. It's still a mental battle, only whilst that used to mean battling to remain disciplined, follow my entry and exit points correctly and stop chasing, now those are not issues anymore. I do still have spells of bad variance to deal with and that will never change. During a downswing, the odd doubt has crept into my head in the past. I'm only human and I still make the odd mistake here and there. But the difference is that now, I have experience. I have a strategy and style of trading that suits me and is proven over years. I've been through downswings before and come out of them and gone on to have great runs, so I know I just need to sit tight and trust in my strategies and in my ability to find value.



Trusting my instinct is the key. I know that I can find opportunities if I just stay patient and trust my gut. The mental battle now is mostly on keeping my focus. The issue with me is that sometimes I'm not motivated enough or challenged enough to both find those opportunities and do the right things once I'm in the market. Also, knowing that I could lose a substantial amount before my trading bank starts to look a little vulnerable, means that it's easy to become complacent or over-confident - two things that are easily over-looked when working on the mental side of trading.

Burnout is a regular occurrence for me too and one that I had to learn to spot quickly and deal with before it ruins my trading. I used to work too hard, much harder than I do now, and it eventually always had a detrimental impact on my trading. It's a skill in itself just being able to know when to trade and when to stop, when to listen to your own body  and take it easy, when to spot the first signs of mental weakness.

That said, when you compare the difficulty of trading 3-4 years ago to now, it's night and day. Although I do more or less the exact same thing with a bank of 5 figures as I used to do with a bank of just 3, it does help to know that I have a large amount behind me and no money worries for the foreseeable future. That enables me to be a little more selective in the market but also a lot more aggressive i.e. I trade less but when I do get involved, I can go for the big wins more often. This is because it matters much less to me about taking some profit from a game. I don't "need" the money now, so I can risk a bit more in order to make more.

So you can see, if you put in the hard work at the beginning, it really can pay off further down the line. The problem for your average trader is that they can't see or don't want to see further down the line. They want success now and they want to do as little as possible to earn it. More on this in my next post!

It was a national holiday in the UK on Monday so I took my girlfriend out for a long romantic/dirty weekend. It was pretty much a spontaneous thing (not something I really planned to do as I've known her for a relatively short time) but it just felt like the right moment to propose  -  there was no tennis to trade on Sunday, so the time was perfect. No, just kidding. I mean, there was indeed nothing to trade on Sunday but that's not why I popped the question then! I won't bore you with the ins and outs of the proposal, just to let you know that she said yes and my life is about to change massively! What does this have to do with trading, you ask? Well, the more I thought about it, the more I realised that it could have a big impact on my working life. In a year or two, there is a strong chance I will have children - that's an entire family to look after.

When I was single, I never had to worry about big responsibilities such as this. I could take my time, learn how to trade when I wanted to, earn enough to just get by and pay my bills. In more recent times it meant I could save up for and then go on big trips like the one next year and do pretty much what I wanted with my spare pennies. I now have other people to think about and my future becomes far more important. Of course, I had already decided that I was going to quit trading and move into a new career path but now that is perhaps something I need to think about a bit more. In terms of purely getting married, it doesn't really make any difference. It won't stop me making that career change. But in terms of financing a family - HUGE difference. There's also some unpredictability about it. Who knows exactly when those children could pop into my life - or how many! It wasn't something I'd ever given much thought because to be honest, I wasn't that bothered about having them. Not till recently. Gradually, I've started to  have more paternal feelings, that have really caught me by surprise because I'd never felt that before and didn't think I ever would.


Anyway, the gist of it is, if I'm gonna be a father, I need to think more carefully about what I'm going to do in future. I've written before about how other successful traders I know who have families, have their fingers in other pies besides their own individual trading. I am all geared up towards next year being my final year on the ladders, so whatever I get into, it won't be related to trading. But I suppose I've always got trading to fall back on, if my new career venture doesn't work out. Or maybe there's a way I can fit it around my new chosen career.

This has all happened very quickly - a bit of a whirlwind! So I'm really just getting my thoughts in order by writing this blog post. But thoughts of the future, financial stability etc, have become a much bigger issue all of a sudden and I don't mind admitting it's a bit scary. The pressure that brings with it could have a detrimental effect on my trading, as it's even more important that I try to make the most of my final year. But then, it also gives me greater motivation to do the best that I can and perhaps that is just the challenge I need to keep me focused; something I have written about many times as being the most difficult aspect of trading now that I'm doing well. Anyway, I've gotta go, the fiance is moaning at me for spending too long on the internet............maybe this wasn't such a good idea after all!

Just in case you didn't see my interview with Andrew Brocker on the excellent Betting Expert.com published on May 13th, here it is again (with a small update included on one of the questions):

How did you start out betting/trading?

 

Unlike most people involved with trading, I had no background at all in gambling when I first discovered Betfair. I'd never played cards for money, I didn’t even have £1 on the Grand National each year and had only set foot inside a bookies once. I have a mate who loves a bet on the football and he coaxed me into having a tenner in Ladbrokes whilst he popped in. The bet lost (my first in almost 30 years on the planet!) and I vowed never to gamble again, so gutted was I!

A few years later, I found myself made redundant and in need of some cash. I'd just got a subscription to a sports channel and started having a few small punts on matches online, just to pass the time. At the same time, I discovered bookie bonus bagging and stumbled across Betfair. I made close to a grand just from matched betting and could see the potential in trading but as I was new to betting full-stop, I found it all a bit daunting. I am not a numbers man. I am much more of a word smith than a mathematician, a creative mind rather than a logical one. So I decided to stick to pure gambling and take advantage of the lay facility on Betfair. But I didn't really know what I was doing.

I became a 0-0 layer but ended up with huge losses. I gave LTD a go. Like everyone else, I bought The Football Cash Generator (£200 that set me back!) and thought I would soon be on the road to riches. That was doomed to failure too! I ended up in a massive hole because I made all the classic mistakes that new traders make: chasing losses, betting with money I shouldn’t have, not having any knowledge of value, not sticking to any strategy for long enough, not taking any notes........I was your classic Betfair loser.

But I could see the potential in trading, as opposed to gambling and I think it helped that I had never been a gambler because I didn't get a huge buzz from it and it wasn't ever something I wanted to pursue recreationally. I got into trading/betting to make money - that's it. If I could do it whilst watching something I loved since the age of 5, even better! I just needed to work out how to trade properly.

How long have you been betting on tennis for? Why did you start betting tennis in particular?

 

 

I've been trading tennis for 3 years. I decided to switch from football mostly because I was rubbish at it and was ready to give up! But I always felt like I was gambling, rather than proper trading. Football markets are so tight and efficient and lacking in dynamism, I couldn’t see where I could find an edge. Tennis was really a last resort after a couple of painful years staying up till 4am chasing losses on Copa Libertadores and MLS soccer. I could have told you anything you wished to know about the Bundesliga 2 or Japanese J-League but I had barely watched any tennis for years and couldn't tell you the names of more than 5 or 6 players.
However, I used to love playing and watching as a kid. As I hate horse racing, golf and US sports, it was really my only option left if I wanted to make it as a trader! I found that the dynamic nature of the tennis markets suited me much more than the slow, predictable football markets, so it was a great fit. Tennis markets are exciting, unpredictable, vibrant roller-coasters.

Above all, the sport hasn’t been ruined by money in the way football has. I'd almost gotten to the point where I hated football, I’d seen so much of it. Now, I struggle to sit through an entire match; the cheating, gamesmanship, uneven distribution of wealth and dull cliches have rendered it less entertaining to me. These days, I get most kicks from mocking football; @footballcliches and @usasoccerguy give me greater pleasure than the actual matches.

Tennis on the other hand, was still relatively new and I think I relished the chance to learn about and eventually love, a new sport. Also, it runs for 10 and a half months a year and unlike football (where you are scratching around for decent competitive matches to trade in the summer) the tournaments remain high quality right the way through and every week sees between 1 and 5 tournaments to trade - perfect for if you are considering going full time as it is rarely quiet.

When did you realise this was something you were good at?

 

A year ago. I already knew I had the knowledge of the tennis markets and the sport to become a successful trader but I didn't have the perfect mindset or a strategy that I was 100'% happy with. Then, February 2012, it all finally clicked into place and I started making good profit. I haven't had a losing month since.
Six months earlier, I began a complete overhaul of my tennis strategy. I had struggled for 18 months and just wasn't getting anywhere. Ironically, it was the introduction of the super premium charge that forced me into action and eventual success. The tennis markets changed (albeit only for a few months) as the big players left, leaving us smaller fry fighting over scraps - I was finding it much harder to get matched.

Truth be told, I had never felt comfortable with what I was doing anyway but this now was the last straw and it sparked a new injection of work ethic within me because I knew if I didn't change, it was all over. I learnt about value, read blogs more deeply, downloaded more trading literature, took more detailed notes and began looking at entirely new angles that I had previously ignored. In particular, I worked on psychology more, thinking up plans to combat my terrible mindset issues. It was that 6 months of hard graft which eventually resulted in a full year of profitability for the first time in 2012. I've a long way to go before I consider myself truly successful but I am confident in my ability to consistently make money now.

How would you describe yourself as a bettor/trader?

 

Emotional! I realised a year or so ago that I am never going to be one of these stone-cold, stoic, robots that are supposedly the holy grail of what a trader should be. I don’t actually subscribe to that belief.
We cannot deny our emotions, only suppress them. I am always going to be pissed off when I lose a trade because that's just the way I am - a perfectionist. The difference between me as a successful trader and me as a losing trader, is that I don't let my emotions rule my decision making any more. I no longer become overwhelmed by anger or fear or greed. Those emotions are still there (mostly just anger these days!) but they don’t affect my trading.

I still get pissed off when a player sends a simple smash into the net or I miss a huge market move by one point and if you are in the same room as me, you will know exactly what has happened! Emotions are not a bad thing in trading, you need to have them to some extent to keep you alert. Besides, I find letting out frustration much more beneficial than suppressing it inside. That's just storing up negative emotion and it has to come out some time - best to do it immediately rather than store up a volcano-load that can do serious damage when it blows!

A book by Curtis Faith 'Trading from Your Gut', was a key factor in defining my own style. It showed that you don't have to be a 'system' trader (more reliant on stats, trigger points and strict systems) to be successful. In fact, you need to have elements of a 'discretionary' trader, who tends to be more reliant on gut feeling and instinct. On the sliding scale, I am definitely much, much closer to the pure 'discretionary' trader. I don't have any databases or mathematical models and my strategy is fairly flexible and allows for game reading and instinct to take precedence.

On the technical side of things, I am a value trader. I look for prices in-play predominantly, that I believe are out of line with what they should be. It's my opinion that very few tennis matches hold real value pre-match. But the beauty of in-play trading, is that people's emotions come into play a lot more and too much emotion can cloud your judgement and cause people to make rash decisions. I aim to take advantage of those over-reactions.

What was your most disappointing loss and your greatest win?

 

My greatest win is probably my lay of Reading this season, when they were 4-0 up against Arsenal in the League Cup. Arsenal scored literally seconds after I placed the lay, so going in at half time 4-1 down, I knew I had a serious chance of getting a huge payout. I fully intended to green up at 4-2 but the second goal didn’t come till about 20 mins to go, so I was forced into staying in the trade because I was barely in profit. They equalised in the dying seconds and I can tell you, I went mental in a way I haven't done for years!
I have so many disappointing losses its hard to keep track, so I will go with a moment instead! I often hark back on my blog, to a time I call 'The Dark Ages', which was when I first started blogging. I began with the usual verve and optimism, thought I'd be the envy of the trading world once I started raking in the cash for all to see.

The reality soon became a nightmare as within 2 months, I'd almost blown my bank of thousands but worse than that, I was a complete wreck. I'd become anxious every time I entered the market, couldn’t bear to be in the same room as the laptop to watch matches unfold (invariably, against me) and my anger levels were so high that I would see red on a daily basis, completely losing all sense of rationality and slapping down stupid bets to chase losses. I couldn't sleep at night and my heart was beating out of my chest for 8+ hours a day. It was truly horrible and I'm afraid that is the ugly side of turning 'pro' - I wasn't anywhere near ready to do so and paid the consequence.

Those 'Dark Ages' eventually lead to better bank management and an upturn in fortune but I'll never forget how awful I felt -I can't even if I tried, as it's all documented on the blog! But I think without that period, I wouldn’t have built up the following I have on the blog (readers seemed to appreciate my honesty) and wouldn't have the understanding I now have about the pitfalls of trading being your only source of income.

Have particular tournaments been more successful for you than others?

 

Not really. I treat every one the same; from Wimbledon to a tiny event in Colombia with no one inside the top 50 in the draw. It really makes no difference to my style of trading - value is value, no matter who is playing or where it is. I've had dreadful Grand Slams in the past and made more money in 250's, so it really just depends on what you are dealt on any given week and how you deal with it.

I don't choose what I trade based on what tournament it is, I choose based on the match up and whether I feel it will produce opportunities in-play.

If there were 3 things that are key to successful tennis betting/trading, what would they be?

 

Specifically focusing on tennis, the first would be knowing the markets. They can be extremely volatile and this scares a lot of traders. If you fear the market, you are always going to struggle. But you only get to that point where you are fearless, when you have studied them for long enough. It's not like football, where you know that the same pattern will occur every single time - a slow erosion in the price as time ticks on. With tennis, it is going to jump around and flip between players and at times, it will happen very quickly and in huge momentum shifts. You have to learn to be comfortable with that and that's something most traders never get to grips with. Yet that is not to be feared because that is where the money lies in tennis trading.

Secondly, you need to know your players. You can look at stats till you are blue in the face but they will never give you a complete picture. Watching matches and getting a feel for each individual player is vital. The more you know, the better. Limiting yourself to just the top 10 will only get you so far - I'm pretty clued up on almost everyone inside the top 200, men and women. Get to know who plays well on which surface and in which tournaments, who tends to be more consistent in a match, who tends to be more streaky, who tends to give away their serve after breaking, who will fight harder when they are behind, who often starts slowly etc. Look for little personal habits that often signal whether a player is struggling or just not up for the fight and those signs that a player is confident. You get to know from the way a player walks around the court, the way they show frustration, the way they strike the ball, facial expressions, how they are likely to perform and those are things that the market doesn't necessarily pick up on.

Thirdly, I would say have patience. This goes for any sport you trade but having spent a fair bit of time on Twitter over the past year, it has confirmed what I already had an inkling about - that the average tennis trader has little or no patience. Everyone seems to need to be 'on' someone at the start of a match. Many traders seem to be involved in a game from start to finish, dipping in and out and changing position constantly. OK, maybe that is their suitable style of trading and if so, they should stick with that but I'm convinced that too many people are desperate to be involved so that they don’t miss out, when I would say that waiting and being patient is far more likely to reap rewards.

I don’t think this is a trading issue though, it's a personal / societal issue. We all want everything NOW in this consumer age. Everyone is busy and has little time to fit what we want to do into the day and as a consequence, very few people have any patience. Yet it's a quality that is VITAL in trading; the ability to wait and only enter the market when there is real value plus the ability to think long term and slowly build a bank. I didn’t have it until very recently and if I had, it would've saved me years of learning and no small amount of money. I always say to myself now "There is always another match just around the corner" and it helps to keep me patient because there really is always another match on within a matter of hours. With tennis in particular, there is no need to always be getting involved so early because there are loads of matches on almost every day and plenty of momentum shifts in many of them.

In general what stats are important in assessing the form of a player?

 

This is where my views will no doubt cause some controversy but I don't really take into account any in-depth stats. That's partly because most stats analysis bores me to tears and so I refuse to do any but also because I think there is no substitute for actually watching matches, even when you aren't involved in the market. When I first started trading, I looked at stats far more than I do now but soon realised that they are just as likely to go out of the window once the match starts, than be any use. I'm sure many traders will disagree with me and use them religiously to determine their every move in the market (those will be the pure 'system' traders I mentioned earlier) but I don’t and I do alright! If you want to really assess a player's form, watch them play - you can pick up far more in body language and style of play, than from numbers after the fact.

Match stats can give you an indication of how well they played but they don’t always tell the full story. If a player converts only 2 of 10 break points (BPs), it looks like they struggle on big points but what if those BPs were in just 2 games? They still broke in both games they had BPs. Stats won’t normally show you that. Certain stats can be manipulated to suit what a trader is looking for and I think that's something we all have done at some point. Some wins can look better than they actually were, on paper. If I've not seen a player actually play recently, I can usually gauge by who they've beaten and the scoreline, just how good their form is (though this is only something I've acquired through thousands of hours of watching tennis). Going any further and looking at serving percentages and net points won and BPs saved has little influence on my style of trading but it might be a winning formula for someone else.

I believe that everyone should stick to their strong points when developing trading style and mine has always been reading players, not analysing stats.

Are there any players you are more wary of than others? Which players do you think are the most dependable?

 

I've heard of traders having 'blacklists' and players they won’t go near but it doesn't matter to me who is playing. Again, it's about knowing your players. If you know who the erratic, unpredictable ones are and get a feel for when they are on a good day or bad day (or good spell within a game or a bad one) then you have no one to fear, in the same way you would no longer fear the market if you understand how it is likely to move. There are two broad categories of player: solid, reliable, consistent players who will fight hard in every match, no matter what is happening and erratic, unreliable, streaky players, who are just as likely to produce breath-taking tennis as they are to shank every single shot into the tramlines or the net. Most players will fall somewhere between the two extremes. Once you know who falls where, you get to eventually know how to read them on any given day.

Fernando Verdasco is always the male player I use as an example of your erratic player; one of the few players good enough to challenge Nadal on clay at his best, yet just as likely to get knocked out in round 1 by an unknown qualifier. He not only varies wildly from match to match but from point to point; he can break an opponent in spectacular style but then fail to hold serve straight afterwards with the most pitiful service game you've ever seen. You just have to know how to play him and adjust your position to take his individuality into account. Youhzny, Fognini, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, Monfils, Mayer, Gulbis........all players in the Verdasco category. With the women, Goerges, Ivanovic, Kvitova, Cirstea, Stosur, Petrova, Barthel, Li Na spring to mind. I used to hate Verdasco because I never knew which version would turn up. These days, I can read him like a book and he has become one of my fave players to trade. Same with Sam Stosur.

On the other side of the coin, your dependable players would include Ferrer, Tipsarevic (when he doesn't retire!), Robredo, Simon, Nadal, Monaco, Del Potro, Berlocq, Nishikori, Seppi. With the women, Radwanska, Errani, Wozniacki, Bartoli, Pennetta, Medina-Garrigues, Kirilenko. All these players have off days and bad streaks of form but they will 9 times out of 10, put up a fight - you have to beat them because they rarely beat themselves. But being more dependable doesn't mean they are a better bet. You have to take into account the match up because that is what tennis is all about - match ups.

It also doesn’t mean they won't hit poor form. 2 years ago, Shahar Peer was one of the most reliable players on the WTA. These days, she can barely string two decent points together. Tipsarevic has been one of the most consistent performers over the last 2 years but this year, I am very wary of him as his form has really dipped. The fight is still there but it doesn’t mean anything if you lack confidence. On the flip side, Gasquet has become extremely reliable in recent months and I would no longer have him in the Verdasco category. So you can't just simply box players into 'dependable' and 'undependable' indefinitely. Things can change rapidly in tennis and you have to be aware of that.

How do you see tennis betting/trader in the future? And what are your personal ambitions?

 

It's my opinion that the tennis markets are pretty mature now, so don’t foresee them changing much unless the game itself changes. That could happen; courts now are much slower across the board than a few years ago and return games are stronger because of this. It definitely seems that players struggle to hold serve as easily as they did. That could also be down to ball and racquet technology as well as improvements in fitness. Within the industry, I hope to see more tennis liquidity on Betdaq in-play. It happened once (back in 2011 following the super premium charge) so it's not impossible but I fear it may take more than the Ladbrokes take-over to really get things moving.

Personal ambitions: I've never sought to be rich from trading, only to either make a comfortable wage or to find opportunities to become involved in, something within the trading industry. With the hard work I've put in and experience I now have, I think it would be a shame to just quit and leave the trading scene entirely (as I've considered recently) but I'm less certain about exactly what I should do. I don't think I'd want to be reliant on my own trading forever, so I'd like to get my fingers into other pies.

Having my own blog has opened up a few interesting opportunities for me but only one truly excited me; when I was asked to trade on behalf of a syndicate. I would love to have that kind of opportunity again (it was pulled after a month, despite me making a good profit) but until that happens, I will continue to slog away on the ladders every week and see where it gets me.

I will also continue to blog. Posts have dried up this year but I may well be taking 'Centre Court Trading' in another direction (maybe even back to an old direction of daily posts). I've loved having a blog these last 2 years and don't want to retire it but I think I need a fresh angle or a new challenge to kick-start it and my trading as a whole. I'm still at a cross-roads right now and need to make decisions about exactly where to go with everything but I definitely am not ready to walk away from trading just yet.

UPDATE: Since the interview, I've decided that I want to 'make hay whilst the sun shines', and my trading has kicked on another level, to the point where my goal is now to reach the Super Premium Charge level as quickly as possible, rather than be happy with just a regular monthly amount to live off.

If you were going to give one key bit of advice for anyone wanting to start out on betting/trading tennis, what would it be?

 

I answered this earlier - be patient! That's the biggest advice I would give for ANY trader. Don’t expect to make any money at all for months if not years (in fact, you should expect to LOSE money at first) because it will take years to learn your craft.

But if I could give another tennis-specific bit of advice other than the above, it would be that the tennis markets have changed from 2 or 3 years ago, when I first started. Techniques that were popular then, will not necessarily work now. Backing the server is not a great strategy any more. There was a time where everyone was doing this and it made it virtually impossible to get a reasonable number of ticks to make it worthwhile. The downside makes the risk-reward ratio very poor value. 15-40 is simply unworkable now - you will not get a big enough move on break point any more to make it worthwhile. Most of the market movement will have taken place earlier in the game. Scalping has always been a minefield but I doubt any serious long term traders use this technique anymore, unless they are court-siding or have fast pics. And if you don't, you are at such a massive disadvantage to these guys, that you are pretty much doomed anyway.

Learning about value is the best chance of finding an edge. The tennis markets are much more efficient now, so it's harder to profit unless you can spot value.

Urszula Radwanska:

I'm going to reveal something now that might surprise many of you. Back at the beginning of the year, I wrote about how I had traded for a betting syndicate in October 2012 and how I had a few offers from potential investors to do something along similar lines. There was much debate amongst the blogging world at the time, about the merits of what I was doing and not long after, there was even more talk about the negative side of entrusting someone else with your money, as the 'Betfair King' (aka Elliot Short), was found to be a fraudster. Very few people had a good thing to say about the pluses of such a deal but then, very few people will have experienced the pros of a successful mutual trading agreement. But I have. Twice.

Because of all the negativity, I decided to stay tight-lipped and not write about this subject any further but I can now reveal that the main reason that I am experiencing such great profit over the past few months, is because one person (who will remain un-named) decided to take a chance on me.  It wasn't a particularly large sum of money (in fact, it was the smallest amount that I'd initially discussed of all the offers I've had) but I always insisted that I didn't need a large amount; just something to kick-start me and enable me to reach a stage where I can compound on my own. I have now finally reached that stage. So my investor has made back all his money and several times that, in just a few short months. Had he not taken the plunge and trusted me, I would not be in the position that I'm now in and I am extremely grateful for that. So much so, that although I no longer require his investment, I want to reward him for giving me an opportunity where most others wouldn't (all the other potential investors I spoke to elected not to get involved and in fact, a couple of them disappeared without a word, mid-discussion, which I find extremely rude).

So I'll be continuing our partnership for a while longer yet and hopefully making both of us more money.  It's not gonna be for everyone but for every Elliot Short disaster (and let's face it, that was a one-off in terms of the sheer scale and incredulity), I'm sure there are plenty of smooth, success stories - you just don't get to hear about them. Which is why I wanted to write about it here on Centre Court Trading but also to put in writing my sincere thanks to my investor. It just goes to show you that there are good, trustworthy people out there and that taking calculated, well-researched risks can reward the brave.

July has broken my monthly profit record again, which shows that you don't need a Grand Slam to make money trading tennis (Wimbledon ended on July 6th but I made relatively little profit on those last few days). There were also no Masters 1000 or WTA Premier events all month, which proves what I've said for a long time: quality of sport has little or no effect on trading opportunities (as long as you know your stuff). The only difference is in the liquidity available, which has not been an issue for me personally.

We are now into the final third of the tennis season and that starts with the run up to the US Open. With matches taking place in the evening, European time, liquidity will be strong, as many part-time / casual traders are now able to give tennis a shot after their working day is over. I personally dislike this period as it plays havoc with my social life but it will at least mean I can experiment with some larger stakes and see if I can take my profit up to another level. I will also be keeping a close eye on the football when it starts. After a couple of successful months trading soccer recently, I want to see if I can continue it this season. Or maybe I'm just becoming more and more greedy the more money I make! It's not a quality I admire but in this game I've come to realise that there is no point holding back and being content when you never know what's around the corner. The words "hay", "sun" and "shine" have never been more pertinent.

Petra Cetkovska:

The final tennis Grand Slam event of the year gets underway next Monday. Here are my thoughts on Betting Expert:

The Sultan's US Open 2013 Preview

Caroline Wozniacki:

Today you are about to find out that even the most experienced trader can still mess up. I've always been honest on this blog about how I'm faring and as the first day of the month has traditionally become my monthly P&L day, I shall continue onwards but head bowed low for the first time in a long time. The bad news: the first week of the US Open has been my worst EVER  week of trading, profit wise. I've spurned literally thousands of pounds in just a few days. The good news: I'm still in profit!

Until a week ago, August was actually my most successful month ever as a trader. I will whisper it quietly, but I was actually in sight of my first 5 figure monthly total. But maybe that was the problem: the whispers became too loud! With an entire week of Grand Slam tennis to end the month, I started to focus on hitting that £10,000 mark. This is an old habit that I thought had died a couple of years ago, fixating on specific financial targets. But somehow, it returned and I couldn't let go. I got over-excited and over-confident. The first week of Wimbledon was my most profitable week of trading (and still is!) and I knew that if I replicated that for the US Open, I would possibly hit a figure that I could only have dreamed of a year ago. I had it in my mind that if I could make a 5 figure sum in one month, that I had truly "arrived" and could consider myself a successful, accomplished, professional trader. It was the icing on the cake, so to speak. For me, it would have been the final, ultimate triumph of my journey from consistent loser to consistent winner - and I desperately wanted to get it. TOO desperately, as it turned out. Things plodded along for the first 2 days and I was breaking even pretty much but then a few trades which were executed perfectly in line with my strategy, didn't come off and I started to worry; only a few days left and it was looking like I wouldn't hit my target.

So I forced a bet, to try and get things rolling. It went horribly wrong and I lost my entire stake. I also lost my head. Although that turned out to my largest loss, it still didn't make a huge dent in my month's tally. But I didn't focus on the good work from the previous 20+ days. I was only focusing on that 10k mark. Next came a series  of losses that equates to my worst ever sequence: 22 losses in a row (not including 4 greens which were all under £10). And they were pretty much all big losses. The question I always ask in this situation is: how much of it was down to variance and how much was me on tilt? This is a question that any trader must be able to answer honestly because if you can't, you will never be able to adjust and improve. These days, I know exactly each and every trade whether it was executed properly and what I should have made on each one compared to what I actually made. My honest assessment is that even if I hadn't gone on tilt and started chasing, I still would've had a lot of losses. It was just one of those weeks where very little went my way. There were an unusually high number of very one-sided matches where during an average week, I would have had at least a handful of them turn in my favour. This week, hardly any of them did. And that is bad variance in a nutshell. It's frustrating but has to be expected and planned for. It's why I have a large bank of money the majority of which just sits there, untouched. This month however, I didn't need that bank to cushion the blow as I'd already had a fantastic month of profit. But  as I sit here staring at that profit (less than half of my total for the previous 2 months), I can't help but feel gutted. Yet if you'd told me a year ago that I would be pissed off at making £2000 in one month, I would've laughed in your face! So I have to put things into perspective and move on.

What this last week has shown, is that you can never let your guard down in this game. I've always maintained that trading is a mental game above all else and is a constant battle to stay on the emotional tightrope. I'm fortunate in a way, that this period of variance did not happen at the start of August, which would have decimated my bank. But then again, would it have even happened at the start? I wasn't focused on making 10k on August 1st, not at all. I have spells of bad variance every month, so it's not like it was anything new. My bank is the size it is because I know that it should withstand a nasty spell like this. It was only because I saw that 5 figure sum on the horizon and a Grand Slam event to help chase it, that affected my mind and my trading. I worked out that if I had traded properly, without chasing, just the bad variance, I would've roughly saved 50% of my losses and that would've given me a monthly total similar to what I'd achieved last month. I would've had a few wins amongst those 22 losses too, as by entering the market at incorrect moments, I often ended up ruining the chance for me to later enter when I should have done, for profit. I also found myself getting more timid. You will see 2 good wins right at the end of the month on the P&L. The largest one looks pretty tidy but in fact, I was so timid that I only went in with half my usual stake: Hantuchova should actually have netted me almost £800 on that trade. The Kohlschreiber win should also have been almost double the amount.

So anyway, no real harm done and in retrospect, it does show just how far I've come. A year ago, I was happy to make £500 on the tennis. Now, 4 times that amount constitutes failure. Trading, eh?

Camila Giorgi:

The US Open comes to a close with the women's final today and the men's on Monday. It's been a tournament full of upsets on both sides, with perhaps the biggest being Novak Djokovic's loss to Kei Nishikori. It wasn't a huge upset in terms of ranking or gap in class. Nishikori was ranked 11 going into Flushing Meadows and will be a top ten player as of next week. He's also been more than a match for Nadal on clay this year (probably would have beaten him had he not been injured) and has beaten Federer and Wawrinka. But in trading terms, yesterday was a massive gubbing. He was 1.13 pre-match, a joke price if ever I saw one, though I won't pretend this wasn't still a huge surprise. That's because he'd come through two consecutive 5 set matches previously and in the intense heat and humidity of New York this week, not many gave him a chance against the iron-man of tennis who had played significantly less time on court. But Kei (not Kai!) gave me one of my biggest ever wins and best of the US Open, as I tweeted after the match:




In today's final between Wozniacki and Serena Williams, I really think we'll see a close match and do not see it as being as one-sided as the market seems to think. I really hope so anyway because a Wozniacki win is going to leave a lot of people rather embarrassed at the way they've been writing the Dane off (rather nastily in many cases) for years. She's been criticised heavily  for not having a big enough game or being aggressive enough, even when she was world number one. Very harsh in my opinion, as that's just not her style and it's very difficult to change your natural mentality and personality. She should be appreciated more for what she is - one of the finest athletes on the WTA, one of the most competitive players and mentally toughest on the women's OR the men's tour, probably THE best defensive female and with perhaps the most solid double-handed backhand in the women's game. Tennis isn't just about big serves and massive shot-making. That said, I never saw her winning a Grand Slam, so I will be proved wrong if she defeats the world number one today - and I hope I am!

As for the men's final, I don't think anyone saw that coming! Cilic v Nishikori won't whet the appetite of most casual viewers - it's the first time in almost 10 years that a Grand Slam final has none of the big 4 (Nadal, Federer, Djokovic and Murray) competing. The last time was the 2005 Australian Open between Hewitt and Safin. But this time, it's much more of  surprise because neither of these two finalists are ranked inside the top 10 - Hewitt and Safin had both already won Slams. However, I'm loving the fact we get to see something different for a change and I also think it will be great for trading. Cilic was outstanding in his semi final - he completely outplayed Federer, who must be feeling he could have lost his last great chance to win another Slam. He has not won one since Wimbledon 2012 and with Nadal injured, Murray knocked out by Djokovic and Djokovic upset by Nishikori, he surely won't get a better opportunity. Nishikori might just find that this is one match too many, as all that court time catches up with him but he is the better player at his very best and I'm hoping he does the job. No other player on tour seems to be as universally liked as Kei (not Kai!) and it will be a much celebrated victory (plus let's face it, Cilic is boring!).

Quick update on my Academy. All places have now been taken for the final year, so that's it I'm afraid - Sultan Tennis Trading Academy is officially closing its doors! However, I've had a lot of interest in my strategy guide which I have only ever sold as part of the academy. So for those of you who could not get a place in the academy, there's now another option. For a very limited period I will be offering my strategy guide separately. Details (updated today) can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the blog. Please email me via the contact form on the blog for further info. Any Academy members who have yet to receive the newly updated guide, please contact me.